几类甲型H1N1流感SEIRS斑块模型的定性研究-应用数学专业论文.docxVIP

Subject : The Qualitative Research of Several Kinds of SEIRS Models of Influenza H1N1 Specialty : Applied Mathematics Name : Suxiaojuan (Signature) Instructor:Dingzhengsheng Zhangzhonghua ABSTRACT (Signature) On the basis of the classical SIR compartment model, several SEIRS models are formulated to describe the transmission of H1N1 influenza in differential patches. By the spectrum theory the matrix, the basic reproductive number R0 is defined and the concrete expression is derived. Then, the dynamics properties such as existence and stability of equilibrium of the models determine by the reproductive number are discussed. The results we derived can provide theoretical and quantitive basis to the prevention and control of H1N1 influenza. Firstly, an SEIRS epidemic model without travelling between the two patches is formulated, and the basic reproductive number R0 defined by spectral radius of a matrix is obtained. The disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if R0 ??1 and unstable if R0 ??1. By analyzing the expression of the basic reproductive number, it can be obtained that the greater c leads to smaller the basic reproduction number, and the disease can be control easier. In the sequel, the qualitative results are verified by numerical simulation. Secondly, we establish an SEIRS model with two patches and only one patch has migration. The basic reproduction number R0 is computed which determines the disease die or not. The disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if R0 ??1 and unstable if R0 ??1, and numerical simulation results show that the number of infected individuals in the second patch quickly converges to zero, the one in the first patch gradually converges to zero after reaching a peak. Subsequently, we consider two SEIRS models with two patches, and in which different migration rates between the two patches are considered. Numerical simulation results show that the