吉林省民间金融和经济增长的实证研究-数量经济学专业论文.docxVIP

万方数据 万方数据 中 文 摘 要 民间金融作为我国正规金融的补充，是我国金融体系的重要组成部分，民间 金融的出现填补了社会资金需求的社会资金供给之间的缺口。民间金融的意义更 重要的体现在金融稀缺地区金融支持的作用，满足中小型企业对资金的需求。在 本文研究的吉林省范围内，民间金融的意义体现在对农民，农业和农村经济的服 务，这不但促进了农村金融体系的发展，也为农村现代化进程提供了资金支持。 所以深入分析民间金融对吉林省经济增长的影响非常具有研究意义。 首先，本文对民间金融的概念，基本形式进行了基本的界定，同时分析了民 间金融产生的原因和民间金融的比较优势。 其次，本文利用间接估算法—θ 值法对吉林省民间金融进行了估算，这种估 算方法建立在两种基本假设前提上，金融发达并且金融管制严格的地区无民间金 融和不同地区的资金投入产出比例相同。 第三，对估算的结果进行实证分析，研究吉林省民间金融和经济增长之间的 协整关系和因果关系。研究结果表明，吉林省民间金融和经济增长互为因果，有 双向促进作用。 最后，本文对吉林省民间金融发展给出了相关建议，给予民间金融合法地位， 拓展民间金融资金来源，民间金融内部自我完善和发展吉林省特色民间金融。 关键词：民间金融 经济增长 θ 值法 VAR 模型 I Abstract Informal finance as a supplement part of formal finance，is a considerable component of modern financial system in our country. Emergence of informal finance filled a gap between social funds need and social funds demand. Apart from that, significant meaning of informal finance is finance supporting in regions that are short of finance, also satisfying funds need of Small and Medium Enterprises. In Jilin province what this thesis focus on, informal finance meaning is that informal finance service farmers, agriculture and rural areas economy. Take this into consideration, we can find that informal finance not only promotes economic growth, but also provides financial supports to rural modernization. Above all, researching and analyzing the relationship between informal finance and economic growth has significant meanings. Firstly, this thesis identified concept and form of informal finance, also analyzing comparative advantages of informal finance contrast with formal finance. Secondly, this thesis adopted θ method that is indirect estimation method. This estimation method based on two hypotheses, one is that there is no informal finance in financial developed regions; the other is that capital input-output proportion is same in different regions. Thirdly, the following works are empirical analyzing the result of estimation, studying co-integration relationship and causal relationship between informal finance and economic