基于主成分分析-BP神经网络的港口竞争力评价研究-物流工程专业论文.docxVIP

i i 摘 要 在世界经济不断变幻、繁荣发展的今天，港口已从单一概念上的中转运输节点的 角色，转变为拥有核心战略资源的社会生产活动聚集地的角色，港口的发展水平也逐 渐成为判断一个国家经济发展水平的重要因素。明确港口发展水平，对港口本身乃至 区域经济规划具有深刻的指导意义。由于港口竞争力是衡量港口发展水平的直观指标， 因而在不同时代背景下，对于港口竞争力的研究不仅有助于港口提升自身实力，而且 也在一定程度上提升了国家竞争力。 本文阐述了港口竞争力研究和研究方法现状，总结出现有竞争力评价大多是从定 性角度研究，缺乏全面系统的评价指标体系，并且没有一个普遍适用的模型评价港口 随时间变化而引起的竞争力变化。通过对比一般评价方法的优缺点，最终提出运用主 成分分析-BP 神经网络的方法进行港口综合竞争力评价。本文首先阐明影响港口竞争 力的因素，以此建立出全部为定量指标的评价指标体系，避免选取难以量化的定性指 标；然后选取我国沿海 13 个港口作为样本，运用主成分分析提取主成分作为 BP 神经 网络的输入，参考《2008 年中国港口综合竞争力指数排行榜报告》中的港口竞争力得 分，计算相对竞争力指数并作为 BP 神经网络输出，构建港口相对竞争力指数测算模 型；最后进行实证研究，测算 2013 年样本港口的相对竞争力指数，并与 2008 年港口 竞争力做出对比分析，结合实际探寻竞争力变化原因与本文总结的影响因素吻合，进 一步验证了模型的可操作性。 关键词：港口竞争力 竞争力指数 主成分分析 BP 神经网络 ii ii Abstract With the continuous development and prosperity of the world economy, the port is not only the transfer transport nodes in the traditional sense, but also is a gathering place for social and economic activities which occupy the core strategic resources, The level of development of the port has become an important factor to determine the level of national economic development. Port comprehensive competitiveness reflects the development level of port. Clear the absence of the ports development, which has the profound significance to the port and regional economic planning. Thus the research of port competitiveness on the different background not only can continuously improve the port’s development, but also an important means of enhancing national competitiveness. This paper expounds the present situation of research and the research method of port competitiveness. Summed up the competitiveness evaluation is mostly based on the perspective of qualitative. There isn’t have a comprehensive and systematic evaluation index system and an universal model for evaluating changes in port competitiveness with time. Through compare the advantages and disadvantages of general evaluation methods, the method of principal component analysis and BP neural network is put forward. First, analyzing the influencing factors o