基于自组织数据挖掘方法的区域用水量预警分析-水利工程；水利水电工程专业论文.docxVIP

华北电力大学硕士学位论文摘 华北电力大学硕士学位论文 摘 要 本文以区域用水总量为研究对象，应用GMDH方法对其进行建模预警研 究，研究内容可分为以下四个方面： 1、区域用水量影响因素体系研究。本着宏观性原则，本文从人口、资源、 经济、科技、能源和管理六个方面，对影响中长期区域用水量影响因素进行辨识， 选取总人口、降雨量等14个指标构建影响因素指标体系。 2、中国区域经济发展聚类分析。选取人均GDP、地方财政收入等19个宏 观经济发展指标，利用系统聚类方法，将中国31个省(市)划分为4类经济区 域。 3、区域用水量预测研究。选取北京、广东、河南和甘肃4个区域，依据用 水量预测要求，利用R语言编程实现GMDH算法，分别构建了这4个区域的用 水量预测模型，并利用该方法求出上述4个省份预测模型中各影响因素的预测 值，进一步求得2014、2015年4个省份的用水量预测值。 4、区域用水量预警分析。根据预测的2014、2015年用水总量，结合用水量 预警方案指出2014、2015年北京、广东、河南和甘肃4个区域所处警度，同时 也表明了GMDH方法是一种适应区域用水量预测和预警的有效方法。 关键词：区域用水量；GMDH方法；预测；预警 万方数据 华北电力大学硕士学位论文 华北电力大学硕士学位论文 Abstract In this paper,using GMDH method to do some researches of predicition and warning of the regional water consumption regarded as the research object of this paper． 1、The research of index system for impact factors of regional water consumption．In the principle of macroscopic，this paper selects 1 4 indicators such as population，rainfall to build index system for impact Factors，hailing from six aspects of influence factors of water consumption including population，resource，economy， science and thehnology,energy，management． 2、The cluster analysis of regional economic development in China．This paper selects 1 9 macroeconomic development indicators such as per capita GDP、local financial income to build system clustering method，and the 3 1 provinces (municipalities)of China are divided into four categories of economic region． 3、The forecast studies of regional water consumption．This paper chooses four regions，including Beijing，Guangdong，Henan and Gansu，and uses GMDH method by using programming of R．The paper designs the block diagram of structure of the warning of the regional water consumption,builds four forecast models of water consumption．The paper obtains the predicted values of each factor included in the above four prediction models and further obtains the predictive values of water ，consumption in 2014 and 2015． 4、The warning analysis of regional water consumption+Basing on the water consumption in 20 14 and 20 1 5