奇次泊松过程及其在城市交通中的应用.docVIP

王伟杰：齐次泊松过程及其在城市交通中的应用 安徽工程大学毕业设计（论文） PAGE II PAGE I 齐次泊松过程及其在城市交通中的应用 摘 要 齐次泊松过程是被研究得最早和最简单的一类过程，他在点过程的理论和应用中都占有重要的地位。 在我们日常生活中，通过对保险索赔要求次数的分析，我们可以知道哪些风险事件发生的概率较高，并分析保险公司一年中要付出的平均保险金额；通过对一个地区商店里的顾客流分析，我们可以看出该地区人们的消费情况及消费倾向，帮经营者提供决策依据；在城市交通中，通过对行人穿越道路所需时间、一定时间内通过车辆次数、行人等待时间等问题的分析，我们可以建立泊松数学模型，推算出该路段的交通情况，找到解决方案，避免一些交通事故的发生。 本文首先介绍了齐次泊松过程的一些基本的概念和与基础的理论知识，然后分别讲述了齐次泊松过程和均匀分布，齐次泊松过程与二项分布及齐次泊松过程与几何分布之间的关系。然后，建立数学模型，针对交通拥挤问题进行了分析并决策，针对不同的交通问题，提出了合理的建议及整改分案。 关键词：齐次泊松过程；概率分布；均匀分布；二项分布；几何分布；数学模型 Homogeneous Poisson process and its applications in city traffic Abstract Homogeneous Poisson process is the earliest and simplest of a class of process. It is important in the point process theory and applications . In our daily life,by the number of requests analysis of insurance claims,we can know what the risks are high probability events, and analysis of the insurance company of the year the average amount of insurance to pay. By the customer flow analysis about an area store, we can see that the consumption of people in the region and the propensity to consume Help operators to provide basis for decision making. In city traffic, By the analysis about the time required of road crosswalks、the number of vehicles within a certain period of time and pedestrian waiting time. we can build Poisson model ,projected traffic conditions in the section, Find a solution to avoid traffic accidents. In this paper, the definition of homogeneous Poisson process explanations to prove their knowledge of the introduction.This paper introduces the homogeneous Poisson process of some basic concepts and associated theoretical knowledge. And then the paper introducesed the relationship between homogeneous Poisson process and the uniform distribution、homogeneous Poisson process and the binomial distribution and homogeneous Poisson process and geometric distribution. Then, setting up mathematical model, analysising traffic congestion and making a strategic decision. For different traffic problems p