中国居民消费率与城镇化率的“U型曲线”关系分析.pdfVIP

Abstract Inthose developedcatch-up—with—and—surpass ratiohavewent adecline through whiletheurbanizationraterose uprapidly,and ratiostartedtoreboundafter consumption—output urbanizationratereachedto a certain level．In 1 rmiohasalsobeen addition，since984，China’S consumption—output insteadof whiletheurbanization decreasing increasing rate the goingup．So，has between ratioand seemed“U-shapedcurve”relationshipconsumption—output urbanizationratebecomethe universallawinthe ofa developingprocesscountry? Whatarethecausesfor would the the“U-shapedcurve’’relationship?Andraising urbanizationratebeaneffectiveto alterChina’Sseculartrendin way ratio?To constructs consumption—outputstart，this paper andthatthecausesthe model，demonstratingthe“U—shapedcurve’’presumption of curve”isbasedontheresultantforceof ofGDP “U·shaped increasingpercapita， alterationof incomeand fixed populationstructure，urban—rural gap gross capital formation are characteristicsof ratio(asGDP)，whichkey datafrom187countriesinthe 1990—2010andfrom31 of panel period