考虑环境污染的随机增长模型-概率论与数理统计专业毕业论文.docxVIP

华 华 中 科 技 大 学 硕 士 学 位 论 文 II II Abstract In this paper, we introduce the history of economic growth and the necessary mathematical implement, then discuss two types of economic growth models —— deterministic growth models and stochastic growth models. First, we introduce the pollution to the utility function. Through connecting the environment pollution with output, individual utility was decided by the three factors: consumption goods, population growth rate and environmental pollution. The model of endogenous population growth was established which can obtain the balance population growth level, the output and pollution growth level and the optimal strategy for controlling the environmental, and also the equilibrium analysis and dynamic analysis were made. Second，we discuss the utility of government expenditure and private investment on environment protection and builds a stochastic growth model related to the consumption and investment on environment protection. Introducing the stochastic shocks of pollution to economic growth, we analyze the impacts of government expenditure, private investment and environment protecting consciousness to the economics, and present the results that overweighting or ignoring the environment protection both are unadvisable. At last，we discuss the negative utility of environment pollution on production and benefits. As a kind of production, environmental quality is expected to play a greater role in the stochastic growth model considering the utilization of environmental technologies. The impacts of the main economic indexes (including the government expenditure, tax rate, private investment to environmental technologies) to the economic growth are presented and the paper provide the optimal tax rate and proportion of private investment. Key words: Pollution Environmenta Technology Stochastic growth Stochastic dynamics optimization Welfare PAGE IV PAGE IV 目 录 摘 要 I Abstract II 1 绪 论 1.1 研究经济增长的经验规律和意义