上市公司企业价值决定因素与其市场价格关系研究——基于企业折现现金流模型的分析框架-金融学专业论文.docxVIP

暨南大学硕士学位论文上市公司企业价值决定因素与其市场价格关系研究 暨南大学硕士学位论文 上市公司企业价值决定因素与其市场价格关系研究 I I 中文摘要 随着社会经济的发展，企业价值评估越来越成为当今社会关注的重点。其中在西方社 会被广泛使用的价值评估方法－折现现金流法也逐渐在国内引起了重视。 本文针对折现现金流模型的三个关键因素（投入资本回报率、增长率、税后营业利润）， 研究其在中国 A 股市场，对其企业市场价值的影响。通过实证分析方法验证折现现金流模 型在中国 A 股市场的适用性。 本文通过对沪深 300 股票的实证分析，利用单个公司逐个回归及结果统计分析，面板 数据回归分析以及分组对比分析的方法进行研究。最后得出了以下结论：第一，投入资本 回报率越大的企业，就越适用于折现现金流模型。第二，在折现现金流模型中，最能反映 企业价值变化的就是税后营业利润。第三，投入资本回报率越大的企业，税后营业利润的 变化就越能反映企业价值的变化，第四，面板回归能较好的反映市场整体结果，其结论与 企业折现现金流估值模型一致。 关键词: 企业价值，市场价格，企业折现现金流模型 II II 英文摘要 Along with the socio-economic development, business valuation becomes focus in todays society. Which are widely used in the West of valuation-discounted cash flow method has gradually attracted attention in the country. In this paper three critical factors of a discounted cash flow model (return on invested capital, growth, after-tax operating profit), research in Chinas a-share market, impact on the market value of their enterprises. Through empirical analysis method to verify that the discounted cash flow model in Chinas a-share market applicability. An empirical analysis based on the CSI 300 index, the use of regression and the statistical analysis of the results one by one single company, panel data regression analysis, and comparative analysis of Group research. Finally arrived at the following conclusions: first, the return on capital invested, the greater enterprise, the more applicable to discounted cash flow models. Second, the discounted cash flow model, best reflects the change of enterprise value is net operating profit. Thirdly, the return on capital invested, the greater enterprise, more changes in after-tax operating profit will reflect changes in the value, IV, a panel regression can better reflect marketing results, conclusions consistent with the business discounted cash flow valuation model. Keywords: Enterprise Value, Market Price, Companies Discounted Cash Flow Model III III 目 录 中文摘要 I 英文摘要 II 目 录 III 1 绪 论1 1.1 研究背景和意义 1 1.2 研究思路、技术路线与研究方法 3