粮食生产安全预警研究——以东北三省为例-环境工程专业论文.docx

AbstractThe Abstract The gram production safety is the first defense line of food security．This text draws lessons from the relevant early warning theory and newest practice achievements both at home and abroad，has made research basic theories锄d basic method of grain production safety pre-waming．set up the eady warning index of grain-production and early warning model of gram production safety,and take three provinces in Northeast China as舶example to carry the positive research．While the s，ain production status of Northeast China is appraisod,the change in regional grain—production have been predicted,thus the precautionary for the grain-production of the Northeast China is put forward． First of all,on the basis of understanding early warning concept and theory deeply,combining the domestic and international index of grain safety,the grain-production characteristic of咖dy region and its special position in national grain-production。we have analyzed the grain-production s眦。and based this。early warning index of grin production safety has been established suitably in the Northeast, and also the gram production safety model is structured．Secondly,take two ways,namely index pre-waming and model pre-waming respectively of early warning yellow method，to Cmry on the grain production safety early warning in the Northeast,that is to say,carry pre-warning to the grain-production state through group of indexes and early warning model respectively,and obtain the following conclusions finally： (1)It was the yield of grain per hectare that exerted largest influence on gram gross ontput in the Northeast,consumption of chemical fertilizer,$own am of grain ClOpS take second place,and the influence under the cultivated land area,irrigated area,mral electricity consumption。pesticide consumption，total power of agricultural machinery,consumption of plastic film and causing disaster B|le reduces sequentially． (2)The analysis of the grain yield in Northeast China indicates that grain-produc