高盛对中国房地产开发商深探究_42页_资料精.pdfVIP

February 22, 2010 China: Real Estate Developers February 22, 2010 China: Real Estate Developers Reshuffling picks on new risk/reward analysis amid tightening Lowering target prices to reflect near-term tightening risk We lower our 12-month target prices across our coverage group by 0%- OUR BASE, BEAR, AND WORST-CASE VALUATIONS 32% after increasing our target price discounts to NAV by 0-20 percentage Base-case Bear-case Worst-case price targets valuation valuation points (to within a range of 10%-40% from our prior 0%-30% range). This 18-Feb Rating LCY 12-mth Upside/ Upside/ Upside/ TP downside downside downside reflects our concern of greater uncertainty arising from recent government Fantasia B* HK$ 2.63 59% 2.10 27% 1.66 1% Vanke (B) B HK$ 11.27 42% 9.74 23% 6.87 -13% macro tightening. Although we believe its purpose is to slow, rather than Gemdale B Rmb 17.45 41% 10.33 -16% 7.03 -43%