数值预报创新基地应聘申请-WMO.PPTVIP

Update of NMC/CMA Global Ensemble Prediction System Jing Chen, Hua Tian, Gou Deng National Meteorological Center (NMC), CMA Contents GEPS System Configuration GEPS Update Tigge relative research and use T213 GEPS Configuration Global EPS Upgrade Old TC EPS： Perturbed TC environment Upgrade TC EPS：perturbed TC environment ＋ Vortex. Tigge relative research and use Relative Research Global EPS system upgrade; Typhoon EPS system development; Method for bias correction combination, cluster; Numerical model error analysis and NWP Probability; Hydrology prediction drived by TIGGE data; Method for severe weather potential forecast; TIGGE-LAM researches Data operational use Medium-range forecast with TIGGE data; CXML typhoon track EPS product; * T213L31 BGM perturbation method Con.l Run IC1+ IC1- IC2+ IC2- Run all members. Product processing SSI+ATOVS Obs relocation and vortex perturbation Typhoon 10 days forecast 15 EPS members 3D SSI+ATOVS Analysis system 0.5625 Horizontal Resolution Global Perturbation region BGM Perturbation method 31 Vertical Resolution T213L31 model Upgraded T213 GEPS System EPS T213 GEPS Based on-BGM System Structure and Flow Chart Data assimilation from Optimal Interpolation ? 3DVAR +ATOVS in 2008 CMA old EPS CMA upgraded EPS Control run forecast skill improve from 5 to 6.5 day Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) New update in 2009 for Global TC ensemble prediction Old TC EPS New TC EPS Difference The ensemble products update on the NMC’s web /publish/nwp/eps-t213/probability/precipitation/index.htm Global TC track EPS CXML digital products CXML ( Cyclone extensible Markup Language): CMA ECMWF NCEP JMA KMA UKMO No.0817, HIGOS (2008) Hydrology forecast based on downscaling TIGGE precipitation TIGGE precipitation in watershed CMA CMA ECMWF ECMWF NCEP NCEP Period and flood runoff forecast based on EPS data Super EPS flood runoff probability prediction