毕业设计（论文）《电气负荷预测方法毕业设计》.doc

沈阳工程学院毕业设计（论文） 基于气象因子的电力系统负荷预测 PAGE PAGE I PAGE PAGE I 中文摘要 电力行业在国家众多能源领域中的重要的基础行业，电力对国家经济发展建设、社会稳定、国民生活稳定方面都有着至关重要的作用，现代社会离不开电力的供应。随着电力工业不断发展进步，电力负荷预测在发展中逐渐呈现出重要性，电力体制的深化使得电力预测技术研究更重要。电力负荷预测是电力生产发展的重要依据。本文主要针对电力系统负荷预测做相关的探讨说明。首先简单的说明了电力系统负荷的组成与分类，简单介绍了电力负荷预测基本概念，及负荷预测的常用方法。 长时间以来，许多学者对电力负荷预测不断探索，本文就是对目前多的电力负荷预测的研究现状，简单论述基于气象因子的电力负荷预测，其中气象因子包括影响电力负荷的气象因素如温度、湿度、降水及季节变化等。在考虑天气情况下可以选择如外推法、神经网络法分析，天气敏感负荷大多用相关技术进行预测，对每个元素相应分析最后的到预测值。基于神经网络的负荷预测，本文首先简单介绍了神经网络原理。人工神经网络以神经元为基础，一个多层神经网络模型可分为输入层、输出层、和中间层三层。神经网络的学习方法主要由BP神经网络法。BP网所使用的学习算法称为误差反向传播法，利用训练样本实现从输入到输出的映射。可以逐一学习和批量学习两种方法。在电力负荷预测中人工神经网络主要用于解决时间序列预测问题，主要用于短期负荷预测。 关键词： 电力负荷预测;气象因素;神经网络法 Abstract Electric power industry in many countries in the field of energy an important fundamental industry, electric power has the vital role in the national economic development, social stability, national stable life, modern society cannot do without power supply. With the continuous development and progress of power industry, power load forecasting in the developing gradually showing the importance of deepening of the power system, the power prediction technology research is more important. Power load forecasting is an important basis for the development of electric power production. This paper mainly for power system load forecasting is doing the relevant discussion that. Firstly, a simple description of the composition and classification of the load of power system load forecasting are introduced simply. Force basic concepts, methods and load forecasting. A long time, many scholars continue to explore the power load forecasting, this paper is to research the prediction of power load, simple exposition of power load forecasting based on meteorological factors, including climatic factors include meteorological factors such as temperature, load and humidity, precipitation and sea