系统工程第四章.pptVIP

Decisions often must be made in environments that are much more fraught with uncertainty . Example: The GOFERBROKE COMPANY owns a tract of land that may contain oil. A consulting geologist has reported to management that she believes there is 1 chance in 4 of oil. Because of this prospect, another oil company has offered to purchase the land for $90,000. However, Goferbroke is considering holding the land in order to drill for oil itself. The cost of drilling is $100,000. If oil is found, the resulting expected revenue will be $800,000, so the companys expected profit (after deducting the cost