从全球货币体系说起：黄金王者归来.docxVIP

第 PAGE 1 页 共 NUMPAGES 3 页 Gold: The King is Returning 06/27/2019 Overweight( Overweight (Maintained) Nonferrous Metals Analyst Zhang Yidong zhangyd@ SFC: BIS749 Analyst Zhang Yidong zhangyd@ SFC: BIS749 SAC: S0190510110012 Contact Han Yijia hanyij@ SAC: S0190517080003 Looking back at the conversion of the global currency hegemony from the pound to the dollar, after two world wars and the Great Recession of the 1930s, the pound has been unable to assume the currency hegemony. In 1944, the US dollar officially replaced the pound into a global currency through the Bretton Woods system. Since then, the United States has been committed to the continuous promotion of the US dollar through the Marshall Plan and the Dodge program, and encourages settlement in US dollars, at the expense of selling the pound. The subprime-mortgage crisis exposed the fragility of the US financial system and demonstrated the power of emerging markets. Since then some new phenomena emerged: (1) World central bank increased its purchase of gold from net selling to net buying. (2) The US dollar ratio fell in the global foreign exchange reserves. (3) The RMB is on the international stage. We believe that the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis has accelerated the transition of the dollar-dominated international system to a diversified international system. During Trumps unilateralism and trade protectionism, the global central banks official gold reserves increased by 651.5 tons in 2018, reaching a new high of nearly 50 years. The motivation behind this may be the rise in uncertainty about global political and trade risks and concerns about the stability of the global monetary system. Countries are looking to avoid a single dollar-dependent approach to compensate for and reduce the risks posed by this system. Strong financial advantages in the position and liquidity of the financial market guarantee the irreplaceable status of the US dollar unless there is a maj