基于脆弱性的电力应急体系灾害损失预评估.PDFVIP

第 38 卷 第 16 期 电力系统保护与控制 Vol.38 No.16 2010 年 8 月 16 日 Power System Protection and Control Aug. 16, 2010 基于脆弱性的电力应急体系灾害损失预评估 1 1 2 2 程正刚 ，房鑫炎 ，俞国勤 ，包海龙 （1.上海交通大学电气工程系，上海 200240；2.上海电力公司，上海 200122） 摘要：介绍了基于时间维的灾害损失评估的几种评估方式，针对其中的预评估在电力应急体系中的应用展开分析，提出了在 电力应急体系中进行灾害损失预评估计算方法。具体介绍了该计算方法中灾害损失数值和电力系统相关系数两个具体参数的 确定方法，针对国家和上海市中最严重的台风灾害损失，根据已有的数据资料具体推导计算，得到预估台风针对电力系统造 成的灾害损失，以根据预评估的数据安排电力应急体系的具体区域电力调度和保障物资的准备和发放，为电力应急体系的应 急管理提供参考与辅助。 关键词：预评估；灾害损失；电力系统；台风；电力应急体系 Vulnerability based disaster loss pre-evaluation of power emergency system 1 1 2 2 CHENG Zheng-gang ，FANG Xin-yan ，YU Guo-qin ，BAO Hai-long （1. Dept of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai JiaoTong University,Shanghai 200240，China ； 2. Shanghai Municipal Electirc Power Company, Shanghai 200122，China ） Abstract ：The paper introduces some time dimension based evalulation methods in disaster loss evaluation，analyzes the application of disaster loss pre-evaluation in power emergency system and proposes the computational method in disaster loss pre-evaluation of power emergency system. The paper introduces the computation method of disaster loss and power system correlation coefficient in detail ．At last, according to the most severe typhoon disaster in China and Shanghai ，based on the materials and deduction ，the paper obtains the disaster loss pre-evaluation of typhoon in power emergency system ，then according to the data power emergency system it arranges the dispatch of power and prepares and distributes security materials. It provides references for the emergency management of power emergency system ． Key words ：pre-evaluation ；disaster loss