董克用教授老龄化背景下中国社会保障财务可持续性的应对措施.pptVIP

老龄化背景下中国社会保障财务可持续性的应对措施 Alternative Policy Measures to Cope with the Impact of Ageing on the Financial Sustainability of the Social Security System in China 董克用 教授 Prof. Keyong DONG 中国人民大学 Renmin University of China 北京，2018.10.12. Beijing, 2018.10.12. 人口老龄化下中国社会保障财政可持续性受到挑战 对策一：统一的税费征管体制 对策二：渐进式延迟退休方案 对策三：积极发展第三支柱 对策四：医疗费用合理控费 对策五：全面放开生育政策 目录 Contents The Population Aging Makes Financial Sustainability of Social Security in China be Challenged Measure 1: Unified Taxes and Fees Collection System Measure 2: Progressively Raising the Retirement Age Measure 3: Advancing the Development of the Third Pillar Measure 4: Reasonable Control of Medical Expenditure Measure 5: Gradually Relaxing the Family Planning Policy 人口老龄化下中国社会保障财政可持续性受到挑战 The Population Aging Makes Financial Sustainability of Social Security in China be Challenged 养老保险 城镇职工养老金缺口巨大 兜底城镇职工基本养老保险的财政支出逐年增加，2016年达到6511亿元，基金结余虽有4万亿元，但全部来自历年的财政补贴总和，个人账户长期“空账”运行。 据预测，至2050年，当年基金收支缺口将达到GDP的7%，基金累积缺口将达到GDP的79%。 城乡居民养老金财政负担沉重 城乡居民基本养老保险在制度设计上就依赖政府财政的支持，补贴额度从2010年的217亿元，逐年增加到2016年的2201亿元，财政补贴长期占基金收入的70%以上。 据模型测算，最坏情况下，2050年两项基本养老保险的当年财政负担将占GDP的8.19%，累计财政负担将超过当年GDP，达到104%。 Pension Insurance Huge funding gap in basic pension insurance for the urban employees In 2016, the number of subsidies reached 651.1 billion yuan. The fund balance (4 trillion yuan) almost came from the sum of fiscal subsidies over the years. Which means the personal accounts has operated in the status of “empty account” for a long time. It is predicted that the funding gap will be 7% of GDP and the accumulated funding gap will reach an all-time high of nearly 79% of GDP in 2050. Heavy financial responsibility in basic pension insurance for the urban and rural residents The amount of subsidies has increased from 21.7 billion yuan in 2010 to 220.1 billion yuan in 2016, and financial subsidies have accounted for funds more than 70% of income in the long term. According to the calculation, in the worst case, the amount of expenditure that the