墨西哥宏观观察：是狂风 暴雨还是微波起伏.pdfVIP

MEXICO MACRO TRACKER: IS IT A STORM OR JUST CHOPPY WATERS? DEEP DIVE Joel Virgen Rojano, Economist | BNP Paribas Securities Corp. ™ Please refer to important information at the end of this report July 2019 MEXICO OUTLOOK UPDATE 2019 2020 GDP real growth (y/y) 1.5% 1.0% Our downward revision to growth acknowledges recent economic performance, overall 1.0% = 1.0% implications of leading indicators and policy uncertainty that could deter investment. Inflation (y/y, eop) 3.7% = 3.7% We still expect upside pressure on CPI to fade gradually and the headline and core 3.4% = 3.4% components to end the year within Banxico’s 2-4% variability range. Banxico rate (y/y, eop) 7.75% 7.50% We recently updated our monetary policy outlook after Banxicos “dovish” tone at its 6.75% = 6.75% June meeting. Primary surplus (% of GDP) 0.0% 0.3% The Finance Ministry appears willing to keep slashing spending in order to meet the -0.7% -0.5% primary surplus target of 1% of GDP. We remain skeptical on the government meeting