电信发展大趋势(1).pptVIP

电信网络技术的发展 RITT 赵慧玲 Annual Revenue Annual Income MCI Worldcom Revenue mix ATT revenue mix ATT revenue mix was the following in 1998: Business services: 23,611 Million USD (or 44% of the revenue) Consumer services: 22,885 Million USD (43%) Wireless services: 5,406 Million USD (10%) Other services: 1,321 Million USD (2%) ATT is just starting to introduce Broadband Internet Services in their reporting. These accounted for 3.4% of their revenues in the 1Q99. Expected growth of Voice-over-IP By 2002, VoIP is expected to be 10.8% of total voice traffic(national+ international) (Internet + IP managed networks) For China the forecast is 1.2% in 2002; 4.5% in 2005 Traditional voice has to be supported for a lot of years ! Segmentation of operatorsBased on the backbone protocol Established operators looking for very open multiservice networks For data: use of ATM backbone to transport IP andFR For voice: optimization of circuit networks (ATM backbone, voice over SDH, trunking of VoATM and VoIP in the existing network) Full support of existing services and introduction of new services New telecom operators continuing ATM deployment, carrying IP, Voice and Frame Relay Internet service providers and new entrants asking for pure IP switching backbone ATM and IP deployment in the backbone The choices of some US operatorsATM, ATM/IP or IP Established operators, focusing on ATM (multi-service networks) RBOCs (Ameritech, Bell Atlantic, Bell South, SBC Communications, US WEST), MCI, GTE , IXC, ATT, (Sprint (ION): no voice yet) New entrants, focusing on ATM (delayed migrating to IP) Williams, Qwest New entrants focusing on pure IP backbones (managed IP networks) Level 3, Frontier, UUNet 1).目前的电信网是为电话设计的，正在改造以便 传数据和图象。未来的趋势将主要按数据业务来 设计网络，但可用来传电话，数据和图象业务。 对现有电路交换网的改造是不可避免的！ (例子：Cisco总工的预言) - 象WorldCom这样的少数新兴电信公司的网络数据 业务量已超过电话，而象ATT,US Sprint等传统电话公司的网络数据业务量也将在2005年左右超过电话业务量 5) 必须暂时放弃端到端ATM连接的理想，用户处将 以以太网/快速以太网和IP接入为主 6) 铜缆接入网必须改造，出路光纤+无线 7) 为应付IP及其他业务引起的巨大压力,以WD