前景理论 Prospect Theory 复旦行为经济学.pptVIP

前景理论 Prospect Theory;产生背景;偏好公理;Example;阿莱斯悖论;阿莱斯悖论;1。μ(100万) 0。10 μ(500万) + 0。89 μ(100万) + 。01 μ(0) 0。11 μ(100万) 0。10 μ(500万) 2。0。11 μ(100万) 0。10 μ(500万) 违反独立性原则。 ;Another version of 阿莱斯悖论;Certainty Effect;Reflection Effect - Loss;“反射效应”是非理性的，表现在股市上就是喜欢将赔钱的股票继续持有下去。统计数据证实，投资者持有亏损股票的时间远长于持有获利股票。投资者长期持有的股票多数是不愿意“割肉”而留下的“套牢”股票。;Exercise – Isolation effect;Exercise;前景理论(Prospect Theory);1。决策参考点(reference point); “An essential feature of the present theory is that the carriers of value are changes in wealth or welfare, rather than final states. This assumption is compatible with basic principles of perception and judgment. Our perceptual apparatus is attuned to the evaluation of changes or differences rather than to the evaluation of absolute magnitudes. When we respond to attributes such as brightness, loudness, or temperature, the past and present context of experience defines an adaptation level, or reference point, and stimuli are perceived in relation to this reference point (Helson (1964)). Thus, an object at a given temperature may be experienced as hot or cold to the touch depending on the temperature to which one has adapted. The same principle applies to non-sensory attributes such as health, prestige, and wealth. The same level of wealth, for example, may imply abject poverty for one person and great riches for another depending on their current assets. “ -- Kahneman and Tversky (1979 Econometrica, p. 277);2。损失规避/厌恶(loss aversion);3。 敏感度递减;Exercise 9;价值函数 Value Function;价值函数与期望效用函数比较;权重函数 (Weighting Function);Exercise;从前例结果证明 当p 很小时， π (rp) r π (p) for 0 r 1 ;Exercise 11;Exercise 12;下面两个选择，你更喜欢哪个？ 选择A：0。1% 机会赢5000元。　　 选择B：100% 机会赢5元。 从此例结果证明 π (p) p when p is small， assuming value function for the gain is concave.;In class Assignment;In-class Assignment;框架效应(Framing Effect);Exercise ;;;Another exercise;Marketing Example;快把手给我，我把你拉上来! 我把手给你，你快抓住我！ 朝三暮四 希望你不要失败！” vs. “祝愿你成功 ;前景理论的应用;奚恺元教授 ;（a）如果你有几个好消息要发布， （b）如果你有几个坏消息要公