毕业设计论文蒙特卡洛模拟与不确定因素的理论研究.docVIP

毕业设计论文蒙特卡洛模拟与不确定因素的理论研究 摘 要 论文首先介绍了矿业资源的属性及矿业投资存在的问题然后详细的介绍了风险并考虑不确定性阐述不确定性分析与风险分析及其研究方法最后找出几个不确定性随机变量建立风险决策问题的数学模型输出各种随机变量并对其敏感性分析 论文通过实例辽宁成大油页岩开发投资项目研究借鉴了国内外经验把蒙特卡洛法应用于矿业投资项目风险分析中并建立模型为矿业项目的理性投资提供了价值更高的决策依据来源 关键词 Abstract In China deterministic method is used by the economic evaluation of mining investment projects generally However the mining investment projects are often affected by many random factors the analysis of these sensitivity factors is not enough Monte Carlo method is one of the ways to solve the problems to fully understand the possible risks of the min