广州市财政支出与经济增长关系的实证研究.doc

广州市财政支出与经济增长关系的实证研究 广州市财政支出与经济增长关系的实证研究 摘 要 中国属于第三世界国家,经济高速的增长备受世界关注。经济增长是国家宏观经济政 策的基本目标之一,财政支出又是政府在宏观调控经济运行的主要政策工具,因此,从财 政支出角度研究我国的经济增长具有重要的理论和实践意义。自阿罗和库兹(Arrow and Kurz 1970将财政支出纳入生产函数中,运用内生增长模型引进对这一问题进行开创性理 论研究以来,中外学者分别在不同国家不同文化的背景下对该模型进行了验证和修正,遗 憾的是一直没有得出一致的结论。 本文的研究是在借鉴前人研究的基础上,以改革开放后广州市政府支出与经济增长的 关系为研究对象,以VAR模型为研究基础,通过搜集广州市 1980-2006 年 27年的数据,运 用 Eviews 软件对数据进行分析,最后得出研究结论。文章中通过对包含政府支出的 C-D生产函数进行 OLS 回归,利用回归结果将财政支 出划分为生产性支出和非生产性支出两大类别,然后利用 VAR 模型和脉冲响应函数检验 了生产性财政支出冲击与非生产性财政支出冲击对经济增长的影响,发现生产性财政支出 冲击的加大促进经济增长,而非生产性财政支出冲击的加大在一定时期内会抑制经济的增 长。最后根据实证分析的结果对广州市财政支出促进经济增长的效果进行分析,指出了其 中的不足之处,并提出了相关的政策建议。关键词:财政支出;经济增长;向量自回归;脉冲响应函数 I广州市财政支出与经济增长关系的实证研究 Abstract China belongs to the Third World Country, so about the high-speed economic growth is concerned by the world all the time. Economic growth is one of the government’s fundamental objectives of macroeconomic policies, and fiscal expenditure is the major tool of government’s macro-economic operations. Therefore, It has theoretical and practical significance to research economic growth of our country form fiscal expenditure. Since Arrow and Kurz(1970)put forward fiscal expenditure into the model of production function ,and introduced endogenous growth model to research this issue creatively, scholars all over the world did some researches to verify and revise the model from different culture backgrounds and different country. However, they didn’t get a unanimous conclusion This paper is based on previous research, took fiscal expenditure and economic growth as research objective after reform and opening up in Guangzhou. Basing on VAR model, the research used Eviews software to analyze data which included 27 years from 1980 to 2006, finally got the conclusion The article will use OLS regression to the C-D function which includes fiscal expenditureAccording to the regression results fiscal expenditure will be divided into two major categories: non-productive expenditure and product