中级宏观经济学(英文)11-The-Macroeconomic-Policy-Debate.pptVIP

Intermediate Macroeconomics Lecture 11 The Macroeconomic Policy Debate William McChesney Martin The fed.’s job is to take away the punch bowl just as the party gets going 联储的工作是在宴会进行时拿走盛满酒的酒杯。 The economy is inherently unstable. The Macroeconomic Policy Debate Milton Friedman 我们需要的不是把经济之车的方向盘一直调整到不可预期的无规则之路上的高超货币司机．．． The economy is naturally stable… The Macroeconomic Policy Debate Active or passive? Free to use discretion or fixed policy rule? Should Policy Be Active or Passive? Active In the absence of an active government role in the economy, events like the Great Depression could occur regularly. ? fight shocks by fiscal/monetary policy Should Policy Be Active or Passive? Passive Lags in implementation effects of policies --- inside lag --- outside lag Automatic stabilizers (income tax; unemployment insurance; Martin Weitzman: profit sharing) Should Policy Be Active or Passive? Passive Economic forecasting is difficult: --- index of leading indicators --- economic models Should Policy Be Active or Passive? e.g. 制造业工人平均生产周数 平均每周州失业保障首次申请 发放的新建筑许可证 敏感原料的价格变动 股票价格指数 根据通货膨胀调整的货币供给 消费者预期指数 Should Policy Be Active or Passive? Ignorance, expectations, the “Lucas Critique” Robert Lucas Expectations play a crucial role in the economy Expectations depend on policies Estimating the effect of a policy change requires knowing how people’s expectations will respond Traditional methods of policy evaluation do not adequately take into account this impact of policy on expectations The Historical Record Still cannot settle the debate, because it is not easy to identify the sources of economic fluctuations. Multiple interpretations are reasonable. We did better? Or the data did? Is the stabilization of the economy a figment of the data? (Christina Romer) Should Policy be Conducted by Rule or by Discretion? The debate over rules v.s. discretion is distinct from the debate over passive v.s. active policy. e.g. MS