公交车到站时间预测方法研究毕业论文文章培训讲学.doc

重庆601路公交车到站时间预测方法研究 2015届交通运输专业毕业论文 1 1 易雪玲：重庆601路公交车到站时间预测方法研究 1 重庆601路公交车到站时间预测方法研究 摘 要：随着中国城市化进程的快速发展，城市交通问题日益严重，发展城市公共交通是解决现代交通问题的唯一途径。在众多的城市公共交通方式中，常规的公共汽车仍是各个城市客运的核心力量。因此，必须从普通出行者的角度出发，考虑他们的实际需求，才能更有针对性地提高运输服务质量。美国曾针对乘客所关心的公交信息种类类进行问卷调查 QUOTE ，调查结果显示：公交车辆到站时间为出行者最为关心的信息之一[1]。所以公交车到站时间的准确发布，具有十分重要的意义。本文从大量的先进文献中，总结了现有的各种公交车到站时间预测方法的特点。结合实际的跟车调查分析影响公交车到站时间的各个因素，其中主要有驾驶员、车辆、道路、环境和突发因素这几个，对可数值化分析的因素进行了筛选。建立起基于历史数据的实时修正公交车到站时间预测模型，并利用重庆市的601路公交车的历史GPS数据对模型进行了实例验证。最后，分析了误差范围，证明得出基于历史数据的实时公交车到站时间预测模型具有模型简单易懂、所需数据量小、预测灵活等明显的优势。 关键词：公交车到站时间；预测；历史数据；GPS 1 1 Study on The Prediction Method for Arrival Time of the 601 Bus in Chongqing Abstract：With the rapid development of urbanization in China, the problem of urban transportation is becoming serious, and developing urban public transport is the only way to resolve modern transportation problem . Among the numerous public transport modes, the conventional bus is the core strength of the urban passenger transport. Therefore, must be from the perspective of an ordinary traveler, considering their actual needs, can be more targeted to improve the quality of transport services. The United States has conducted a questionnaire survey which is about the bus kind of information that passengers concern, the survey results show that: the arrival time of the bus station is one of the most concerned information. So accurate bus arrival time of publication has very important significance.Firstly, this paper summarizes the characteristics of various existing methods to predict bus arrival time from large number of frontier literature.Combined with the actual bus following investigation and analysis of various factors affecting bus arrival time, which is the main driver, vehicle, road, environment and sudden factors, the numerical analysis of the factors were screened. The real-time correction bus arrival time model based on historical data is established, and the model is verified by the historical GPS data of 601 bus of Chongqing