后时代人民币汇率波动的影响因素分析.docVIP

后危机时代人民币汇率波动的影响因素分析 PAGE PAGE 28 后危机时代人民币汇率波动的影响因素分析 摘要 在开放经济的条件下，汇率作为国际经济关系正常发展的纽带正日益发挥着重要的作用。人民币由05年不断升值直至今日，在金融危机对世界经济造成巨大的冲击，同时也给中国带来诸多负面效应，并且在美联储启动二次量化宽松政策和各国竞相压低本国汇率的外部情况下，中国人民币汇率问题再次被推到了漩涡中心。世界各国对中国人民币汇率问题越来越关注，其原因不只是因为中国国土面积大，重点是中国的经济已经能慢慢左右世界经济的进程。作为中国唯一的法定货币，人民币的波动必然会对各个方面产生影响。在后危机这样一个时代背景下，人民币汇率要维持一个较为稳定的水平，有浮动地进行管理调节进而应对千变万化的国际经济形势。 基于上述原因，在介绍选题背景、研究目的和研究意义，回顾中外文献相关研究状况及影响汇率波动的因素分析后，将人民币汇率波动问题置于后金融危机时代的背景下，文章对人民币汇率的实际波动做了总体考察，分析其走势、波动特点及在波动中存在的问题；然后理论分析中国GDP、国际收支、通货膨胀、外汇储备等因素对人民币汇率波动的影响，建立人民币汇率波动的影响因素指标体系。对各个影响因素进行理论分析以后，利用多元线性回归模型来探讨各因素对人民币汇率波动的影响，最终得出结论，总结全文。 关键词：后危机时代，人民币汇率，GDP，国际收支，通货膨胀，外汇储备  THE INFLUENCING FACTOR ANALYSIS OF THE RMB EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE POST-CRISIS ERA ABSTRACT In the condition of the open economy, the exchange rate, which is good at the normal development of international economic relations, is playing an increasingly important role in our daily life. RMB has a continuous appreciation from 2005 until today. The financial crisis caused great shock on the world economy, but also has brought many negative effects to China, and under the exterior of the fed’s starting its second quantitative easing and countries’ keeping their exchange rates down, the RMB exchange rate issue was again pushed to vortex center. Countries around the world are increasingly concerned about China’s RMB exchange rate issue, which is because of China’s great land area, but also the process of China’s economy slowly affecting the world economy. As the only legal tender in China, the RMB fluctuations will inevitably have an impact on all aspects. In the context of such an era of post-crisis, the RMB exchange rate should maintain a relatively stable level and have a floating management adjustment, then to deal with the ever-changing international economic situation. For these reasons, after introducing the background, purpose, meaning, reviewing the situation of foreign literature and the impact analysis of the ex