smith barney-全球经济展望跟投资策略 资料.pdf

See the Disclosure Appendix for the Analyst Certification and Other Disclosures. E C O N O M I C January 19, 2005 M A R K E T A N A L Y S I S Economics/Strategy Global Kermit L. Schoenholtz 1-212-816-9898 kim.schoenholtz@ Global Economic Europe Outlook and Strategy Michael Saunders 44-20-7986-3299 Japan Kiichi Murashima ➤ Favorable financial conditions should help sustain a 81-3-5574-4730 pace of global expansion moderately above past United States Robert V. DiClemente norms. U.S. growth prospects continue to exceed 1-212-816-9893 notably the outlook in the euro area and Japan. Australia/New Zealand Paul Brennan Stephen Halmarick 61-2-8225-6043 ➤ The Fed likely will continue to tighten at a steady Canada pace, boosting rates to the 31 2 / %-4% range this year. Gabriel de Kock 1-212-816-3954 However, the ECB probably will tighten only modestly Emerging Markets from midyear, while mild deflation in Japan favors Lewis Alexander Donald Hanna continued “quantitative easing” through 2005. Thomas J. Trebat Ann Wyman 1-212-816-9891 ➤ Above-trend growth sho