北京山区泥石流预警阈值初步研究.pdfVIP

第 11 卷 第 3 期 Vo1.11 No.3 2016 年 9 月 September 2016 ， doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-1903.2016.03.001 北京山区泥石流预警阈值初步研究 贾三满，路 璐，翟淑花，王海芝，王珊珊，齐 干 （北京市地质研究所，北京 100120） 摘 要：泥石流预警阈值，是突发地质灾害防灾减灾的重要参考指标。本文结合北京山区泥石流灾害特点和已有降雨 阈值研究成果，一方面在泥石流沟易发性、物源和危害人数进行分级的基础上，提出不同级别沟谷在不同前期降雨条 件下，不同发灾概率的激发雨量，极大地方便了中短期预警实际工作；另一方面将泥石流流域降雨量、土壤含水率、 次声、泥位 4 个参数，作为泥石流短临灾害预警关键物理参数，开展了泥石流专业监测设备预警阈值研究。最终，从 技术层面上构建不同时间维度的泥石流监测预警阈值体系，为北京山区泥石流监测预警提供技术支持。 关键词：泥石流预警；临界雨量；土壤含水率；次声；泥位 中图分类号：P642.23 文献标识码：A 文章编号：1007-1903（2016）03-0001-07 Preliminary Study on Early Warning Threshold of Debris Flow in Beijing Mountainous Area JIA Sanman, LU Lu, ZHAI Shuhua, WANG Haizhi, WANG Shanshan, QI Gan (Beijing Institute of Geology, Beijing 100120) Abstract: The warning threshold is the critical reference index to monitor debris flow. According to the characters of debris flow in Beijing area and theoretic research in the field, two aspects contents are introduced in the article: 1) based on hazard tendency, provenance and the number of victims, debris flow ditches are divided into three levels. The authors propose rain thresholds for different ditch level, antecedent rainfall and hazard probability. This method provides the convenience for medium and short-term warning; 2)The rainfall value, water-content of soil , infrasonic wave information as well as the mud level are chosen as the four indexes of early warning of debris flow. And the threshold values are studied in the paper. Finally, the system of warning threshold of