汇丰银行-亚洲宏观经济报告：弯曲，而不是断裂.docxVIP

By: Frederic Neumann and Qu Hongbin Economics Asia Q4 2019 HYPERLINK / Asian Economics Bending, not breaking Trade tensions and wobbly local demand are weighing on growth in China and elsewhere in Asia But further policy easing, both fiscal and monetary, will strengthen resilience across the region… …even if it may take a little while longer for growth to swing back Disclosures Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Economics ● Economics ● Asia Q4 2019 Economics ● Economics ● Asia Q4 2019 PAGE PAGE 4 PAGE PAGE 3 Executive summary Things have been a little bumpier than expected across Asia, but the region is firmly holding on to growth. Exports, the main fuel of Asia’s economic engine, have dried up, with shipments falling for several months. Trade tensions between the US and China are only partly to blame: wobbly demand across developed and even many emerging markets, as well as a tired electronics cycle, have equally weighed on shipments. Hesitant easing in mainland China has further curtailed growth, not only domestically, but more broadly across the region. And yet, all considered, overall demand in Asia is ticking along at a decent enough pace. To prevent a further slowdown, however, extra easing, both monetary and fiscal, will be required. Even then, given continued global headwinds, it will take a little while longer before Asia swings back with its customary panache. Not this time Yes, things feel soggy. Look closely, however, and the region’s economies have arguably held up better than many others, notably in the West. And yet, without extra stimulus, Asia, too, is bound to slip further. Good news, then, that there is more easing in the pipeline. That said, mainland China is not about to pull out the massive reflation investors got accustomed to over previous cycles. It’s more about fine-tuning the stance, rather than pu