德意志银行-新兴市场-em macro and strategy focus-20170623-deutschebank.pdfVIP

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Global Economics Date Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange 23 June 2017 United States Rates Credit Editors EM Macro and Strategy Focus Drausio Giacomelli Strategist (+1) 212 250-7355 Jed Evans (+1) 212 250-8605 Economics Focus: We expect South Korea to report stronger export growth as Sebastian Brown holidays effects drop out. In EMEA, we expect CNB to keep the rates on hold in next Strategist – LatAm week’s MPC meeting. We forecast a marginal increase in Polish prices in June, with (+1) 212 250-8191 annual headline falling slightly to 1.8% YoY on base effects. In LatAm the Brazilian government could lower the inflation target for 2019 despite lack of a credible fiscal Gautam Kalani anchor. We see BanRep lowering its policy rate by 50bp next Friday on deterioration in leading activity indicators and prospects of inflation converging to the target band. Strategist – E