BCG-中国网通战略咨询资料完整版01.ppt

OVERALL REVENUE AND MARKET SHARE EXPECTATIONS: ENTERPRISE SOLUTIONS Predominately voice (DLD / ILD) revenue in the first two years; migrating to data and Internet services by 2002 CNC revenue (RMB BN) Internet Access Leased Lines ILD DLD Share assumptions Other Emerging Services Web Hosting / Collocation Source: CNC team inputs; foreign benchmarks; BCG analysis 1999 3% 80% 1% 3% 80% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% DLD Off-net share of total DLD Geographic coverage of CNC CNC share within coverage ILD Off-net share of total ILD Geographic coverage of CNC CNC share within coverage Leased Lines Geographic coverage of CNC CNC share within coverage Internet Access Broadband Narrowband / Dial-Up Web Hosting / Collocation Other Emerging Services 2000 10% 60% 25% 11% 60% 25% 30% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2001 17% 75% 29% 18% 75% 29% 47% 10% 10% 0% 5% 1% 2002 23% 90% 33% 26% 90% 33% 63% 14% 14% 0% 8% 2% 2003 30% 100% 30% 33% 100% 30% 80% 18% 18% 0% 10% 4% 2004 32% 100% 28% 35% 100% 28% 82% 21% 21% 0% 13% 6% OVERALL ECONOMICS ATTRACTIVE FOR PHASE I BUILDOUT IN TOP FOUR CITIES 5 year PVs (M RMB) CapEx OpEx Revenue 5 year city NPV 5 year IRR Shanghai Beijing Guangzhou Shenzhen Total 145 149 157 95 546 504 447 400 332 1683 960 768 640 480 2848 311 172 83 53 70% 45% 30% 28% Overall Phase I 5 year NPV: ~620M RMB 5 year IRR: ~44% Source: BCG benchmark database; industry interviews; BCG analysis GOING FORWARD, CITIES WILL NEED TO BE ANALYZED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS Deployment technology will play a critical role Methodology/criteria for choosing local access markets Initial prioritization by total GDP vs. GDP/capita Relevance and proximity to CNC network Map urban area by biggest buildings and availability of existing conduits Determine if density falls into one of the three density categories Estimate costs and revenue associated with buildout 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Go or no go! Cost to deliver enterprise