统计应用案例报童模型.pptxVIP

《统计应用案例-报童模型》 ;在你面前有三个门，其中两个门里面是山羊，另外一个是汽车。你当然想得到那辆汽车，而不是臭气轰轰的山羊。主持人要求你选中一个，但是不能打开。此时主持人打开另外一个，是山羊。现在主持人问你，你要不要改成第三个门？;3;报亭老板如何决策？;5;决策思路;7;案例：报童模型;9;O’Neill’s Hammer 3/2 wetsuit;Hammer 3/2 timeline and economics;Newsvendor model implementation steps;The Newsvendor Model: Develop a Forecast;Historical forecast performance at O’Neill;Empirical distribution of forecast accuracy;Normal distribution tutorial ;Converting between Normal distributions;Start with an initial forecast generated from hunches, guesses, etc. O’Neill’s initial forecast for the Hammer 3/2 = 3200 units. Evaluate the A/F ratios of the historical data: Set the mean of the normal distribution to Set the standard deviation of the normal distribution to;O’Neill’s Hammer 3/2 normal distribution forecast;Empirical vs normal demand distribution;“Too much” and “too little” costs;Balancing the risk and benefit of ordering a unit;Newsvendor expected profit maximizing order quantity;Finding the Hammer 3/2’s expected profit maximizing order quantity with the empirical distribution function;25;26;用历史数据构建的需求分布函数;Hammer 3/2’s expected profit maximizing order quantity using the normal distribution