改革以来中国农业政策效果的时空计量分析.docxVIP

J．Gcogr．Sci．2011，21(3)：475—488 DoI：10．1伽r7，s11442．011-0眵孓1 J．Gcogr．Sci．2011，21(3)：475—488 DoI：10．1伽r7，s11442．011-0眵孓1 @2011 re8 Science Press垒Springer-Verlag The temporal and spatial evaluation on China，S agricultural policy output since 1978 YU Jianhuil·2，v。‘ZHANG Wenzhon91’，WANG Dail，2 1．Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling，CAS，Belling 100101，China； 2．Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research，CAS，Beijing 1 001 01。China； 3．Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences。Beijing 1 00039，China Abstract：Since reform and opening up，how much contribution has China’s implementation of new agriculturaI policy made to agriculturaI output?This paper is trying to establish an agri- culturaJ policy output econometric modeI for doing a quantitative analysis of China’s new ag- riculturaI policy．The results show that China’s agriculturaI policies on agricultural output have an average contribution rate of about 7％since 1 978。which is consistent with the OECD‘s basic forecast．There are obvious temporaI and spatial differences．Generally speaking，we can divide the contribution of agriculturaI policy into three periods．which are the start-up phase from 1 978 to 1 991(1 4 years)，the stationary phase from 1 992 to 2002《1 1 years)and the rising phase from 2003 to 2008(6 years)．In space，the contribution of agricultural policy underwent a process frOm the all-low in the start—up phase，the gradual increase in the sta- tionary phase to the all—high in the rising phase．Northern and western regions are more sen- sitive to policies．There are three major factors that can affect the contribution of regional agricultural policies．which are the process of nationaIindustrialization strategy,terrain and the IeveI of IocaI finance． Keywords：evaluation；agricultural po№y；econometric modal；China 1 Introduction Agricultural policy is one of the most important parts of national economic policies，which is the general term for a