外企招聘笔试面试题库mono-2009-m-as09-1-damghani.pdfVIP

Decision Making Under Uncertain and Risky Situations M. T. Taghavifard K. Khalili Damghani∗ R. Tavakkoli Moghaddam Copyright 2009 by the Society of Actuaries. All rights reserved by the Society of Actuaries. Permission is granted to make brief excerpts for a published review. Permission is also granted to make limited numbers of copies of items in this monograph for personal, internal, classroom or other instructional use, on condition that the foregoing copyright notice is used so as to give reasonable notice of the Societys copyright. This consent for free limited copying without prior consent of the Society does not extend to making copies for general distribution, for advertising or promotional purposes, for inclusion in new collective works or for resale. ∗ Corresponding author. Abstract Decision making is certainly the most important task of a manager and it is often a very difficult one. The domain of decision analysis models falls between two extreme cases. This depends upon the degree of knowledge we have about the outcome of our actions. One “pole” on this scale is deterministic. The opposite “pole” is pure uncertainty. Between these two extremes are problems under risk. The main idea here is that for any given problem, the degree of certainty varies among managers depending upon how much knowledge each one has about the same problem. This reflects the recommendation of a different solution by each person. Probability is an instrument used to measure the likelihood of occurrence for an event. When probability is used to express uncertainty, the deterministic side has a probability of one (or zero), while the other end has a flat (all equally probable) probability. This paper offers a de