投资银行在产业中的应用(ppt26).pptx

L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Personal Folders\BLUX\Tim Schwarz\Utility Industry Presentation.ppt\A2XP\16 SEP 2005\5:55 PM\1217347.html投资银行在产业中的应用 Investment Banking View of the Utility Industry21 September 2005L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Personal Folders\BLUX\Tim Schwarz\Utility Industry Presentation.ppt\A2XP\16 SEP 2005\5:55 PM\2Table of ContentsSection 1Utility Sector UpdateSection 2Perspectives on Recent Strategic ActivitySection 3Energy Policy ActSection 4Transmission Environment UpdateAppendix ABioTimothy R. SchwarzL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Personal Folders\BLUX\Tim Schwarz\Utility Industry Presentation.ppt\A2XP\16 SEP 2005\5:55 PM\4Section 1Utility Sector UpdateCorrelation Between Dividend Growth and Earnings GrowthIndex of Relative Strength of Growth vs. Value EffectivenessSP500 Growth Relative to SP 500 Value Annual Total ReturnDéjà Vu: We Think Growth Investors Are Looking at Something Akin to the 1994-1997 PeriodL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Personal Folders\BLUX\Tim Schwarz\Utility Industry Presentation.ppt\A2XP\16 SEP 2005\5:55 PM\5Utility Sector UpdateA Brave New World of Growth is Emerging…Growth stocks are starting to make a comeback after 5 consecutive years of trailing value stocksYear-to-date performance supports our view, as growth, measured by the Barra indexes, has marginally outperformed value. More telling could be that growth has triumphed over value during each of the last six monthsHowever, unlike past rebounds in growth stocks, we expect a GARP orientation to dominate during this cycleEarnings growth and dividend growth have reconnected after the long absence that defined the 1990sGrowthGrowthTech 2000NiftyFiftyPeakEnergySectorPeakKuwait/RecessionJul 94ValueValueApr 77Oct 84Source Morgan Stanley ResearchSource Ibbotson, Morgan Stanley ResearchSource SP, Thomson Financial, Morgan Stanley ResearchSource SP, Thomson Financial, Morgan Stanley Research1Interest Rate Outlook(1)%SP Utility Index FY1 P/E and 30-Year Treasury YieldP/E (x) Yield (%)L:\UT