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38. The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorial, a company that manufactures mens clothing.
Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The vice president of Sartorial argues here in this memo that by resuming production of alpaca overcoats, Sartorial would increase its profits. I find the argument specious in several assumptions that really need more evidence to validate them. For example, since Sartorians chief competitor has discontinued making these coats there must be pent-up consumer demand for them which Sartorial would fill, an assumption that is not proven yet. And another not-proven-yet assumption is that since overall clothing prices have risen in each of the last five years, consumers will be willing to pay higher prices for Sartorians alpaca coats.
The argument assumes that the fabric supplier would be the only contributing factor in influencing alpaca sales. Yet the memo provides no substantiating evidence for this assumption. Perhaps the supply problems Sartorial experienced years earlier were attributable not to its supplier at the time but rather to factors beyond any suppliers control and which might render the alpaca supply unrel
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