东盟主要经济体再度担忧.docxVIP

Contents TOC \o 1-1 \h \z \u Summary of COVID-19 in Four Key ASEAN Economies 1 Vietnam 2 Malaysia 5 Thailand 9 Indonesia 13 Conclusion 16 References 17 This Special Report is authored by Associate Professor Simon Tay, Chairman, SIIA; Kevin Chen, Research Analyst; Jessica Wau, Assistant Director (ASEAN); and Sarah Loh, Research Analyst. All views expressed in this special report are those of the authors, unless otherwise credited. Introduction This Special Report by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA) will examine how key Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies – Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam – are emerging after the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. From June 2020, these four countries announced the end or easing of their lockdown measures and began to reopen their economies and business sectors. Their prospects matter not only to their own citizens but to the region and to Singapore as a hub, partner and investor. These four key economies represent over 70 per cent of overall ASEAN gross domestic product (GDP).1 This report will consider pre-existing economic and political challenges and how some of these have either stabilised or been sharpened and aggravated by the pandemic. The focus on the pandemic has generally meant that political developments have been muted in the first half of 2020. But as each country emerges from restrictions, political contestations and economic challenges are restarting; there are trends and risks emerging that may well move more quickly in the coming months. In our analysis, there were important differences in the degree, timing, and capacity of COVID-19 measures. Vietnam acted early on and effectively controlled the health situation, although a second wave in end July will test its efforts. While delayed, Malaysia and Thailand seem to have been eventually and relatively effective. Concerns are however that Indonesia acted late and has yet to control the effects