高盛 中国策略报告 Easing into better place.docVIP

October 25, 2011 China 2012 outlook: Easing into a better place Portfolio Strategy ResearchChina policy direction positive, we expect soft landing Helen Zhu +852-2978-0048 helen.zhu@ China tightening and DM slowdown have been a poor combination in 2011, Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. but we head into 2012 with a friendlier domestic policy outlook. Our economics team forecasts 8.6% 2012E GDP growth with gradually looser Timothy Moe, CFA liquidity, proactive fiscal stance, and increasing support towards targeted +852-2978-1328 timothy.moe@ areas. External demand visibility remains low and is a key risk, in our view. Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. We believe investor concerns over structural issues will persist, with Christopher Eoyang property being the key stress point. Although growth, reforms, system +81(3)6437-9888 christopher.eoyang@ buffers and proactive ring-fencing of issues may alleviate bearish Goldman Sachs Japan Co., Ltd. sentiment, we think the process will likely be gradual. Hanfeng Wang, Ph.D, CFA +86(10)6627-3318 hanfeng.wang@ Returns from earnings + valuation; DM is a key challenge Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited We forecast MXCN and HSCEI targets at 66.1 and 12,100 by end-2012E, or 30% potential upside. MXCN 2012E earnings growth of 8% is achievable, in Ben Bei our view. We assume only a slight cyclical re-rating from 8.3X P/E currently +852-2978-1220 ben.bei@ Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. to 8.5X at end-2011E and 9.5X at end-2012E. We expect low returns in 4Q11 (global volatility), and then front-end loaded returns in 1H12 (when China Chenjie Liu policy inflection is most evident). Any global or China structural re-rating +86(10)6627-3324 chenjie.liu@ could bring incremental upside, but is not reflected in our forecasts. Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Jason Lui, CFA Tepid cyclical bias to start, look for beta entry points +852-2978-6613 jason.lui@ Growing evidence of no hard landing could create significant opportunities in Gol