生物资源评估：渔业资源管理.pptVIP

Fisheries Stock Assessment 流程 ? Observe fisheries stock Defining distributions Fisheries monitoring and sampling program Scientific survey program ? Establish population dynamics models Production models Age-structured models Size-structured models ? Make assumptions on errors in modeling Source of errors Statistical property of errors ? Select a suitable statistical method Frequentist inference Maximum likelihood Method of moments Bayesian inference: priors ? Relate models to data Objective function Optimization Estimation of parameters Characterization of uncertainty ? Evaluate current status of fish stock Current stock biomass and mortality Stock depletion Comparison with biological reference point (management target, threshold, and limit) Uncertainties ? Risk analysis of alternative management strategies/options A list of alternative strategies Selection of measures Simulating fisheries dynamics Evaluation Other considerations Identification A flow chart of stock assessment for a catch quota-managed fishery  So, in summary, we need to Quantify management objectives in BRPs Establish population dynamics models Sample data from fish stocks and fishermen Statistical assumptions on data and models Fit the models to data Make statements about fisheries using the estimated models and BRPs 输出控制 Output-control management strategy Control output production of a fishery, mainly catch, to maintain fishing mortality rate at a desired level Constant stock size Constant fishing mortality rate Fixed escapement Constant catch Quota：配额 Sex-specific harvesting Size-limit strategies Economical harvest strategy 两种管理策略的不足之处： Input control: temporal changes in fishing efficiency and fish distributions, require good information about fish biology and ecology, knowledge about fishermen’s fishing behavior Output control: difficult to regulate, require high quality of stock assessment, 渔获规则/管理措施 ：Harvest tactics / regulations A set of annual regulations used to impl