climate change present, past, and future national ocean service精品管理文档.pptxVIP

Climate Change:Present, Past, and Future;In 2006, in response to a request from Congress, the National Academy of Sciences prepared a report on the state of scientific efforts to reconstruct surface temperature records over the last 2,000 years. ;This presentation shows scientific estimates of global average temperature from 1000 to 2100. Each dataset, calculated from instrumental records, proxy records, or projections made by climate models, has been published in peer-reviewed literature.;;;;;;;;;;;;;Instrumental Record Surface temperatures for Earth are most reliably known for the period 1850 to present. This is the time for which there has been reasonable global coverage of stations measuring temperature in a systematic manner. The records show that since 1850, global average temperature increased by about 0.8°C, with much of the warming occurring since 1975. Philip Brohan and colleagues at universities in the United Kingdom published this record of global average temperatures (called HadCRUT3). The data set was based on a previous global temperature data set called HadCRUT which was derived from instrumental records. The old temperature record was modified to reflect improvements in estimating sea surface temperature and land data. The study also included a comprehensive set of uncertainty estimates for the data, including estimates of measurement and sampling error, temperature bias effects, and the effect of limited observational coverage on large-scale averages. Brohan, P., J. J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S. F. B. Tett, and P. D. Jones (2006), Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D12106, doi:10.1029/2005JD006548.;Proxy Records Temperatures can be deduced from natural records such as Tree rings Sediments in the ocean or lakes Corals Subsurface rock, soil, or ice temperatures Layers of ice In Slide