商务统计-C9商务统计.pdf

Chapter 9 Est imat ion and Confidence Intervals GOALS 1.Define a po int est imate. 2.Define leve l of confidence. 3.Construct a confidence interval for the populat ion mean when the populat ion standard dev iat ion is known. 4.Construct a confidence interval for a populat ion mean when the populat ion standard dev iat ion is unknown. GOALS 5.Construct a confidence interval for a populat ion proport ion. 6.Determ ine the sample size for attribute and variable sampling. Po int and Interval Est imates · A po int est imate is the stat ist ic (sing le value), computed from sample informat ion, which is used to est imate the populat ion parameter. Po int and Interval Est imates · A confidence interval est imate is a range of values constructed from sample data so that the populat ion parameter is like ly to occur w ithin that range at a spec ified probability. The spec ified probability is called the leve l of confidence. Factors Affect ing Confidence Interval Est imates The factors that determ ine the w idth of a confidence interval are: 1.The sample size, n. 2.The variability in the populat ion σ, usually est imated by s. 3.The desired leve l of confidence. Find ing z-value for 95% Confidence Interval The area between Z -1.96 and z +1.96 is 0.95 Interval Est imates - Interpretat ion For a 95% confidence interval about 95% of the sim ilarly constructed intervals w ill contain the parameter being est imated. A lso 95% of the sample means for a spec ified sample size w ill lie w ithin 1.96 standard dev iat ions of the hypothesized populat ion Interval Est imates - Interpretat ion Po int Est imates and Confidence Intervals for a Mean – σ Known x  sample mean z  z - value for a particular confidence level σ  the population standard deviation n  the number of observations in the sample Example: Confidence Interval for a Mean