1989-2018美赛建模论文2018年美赛o奖论文e74971-climate counts less fragility better countries.pdf

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1989-2018美赛建模论文2018年美赛o奖论文e74971-climate counts less fragility better countries.pdf

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TeamControlNumber Forofficeuseonly Forofficeuseonly T1 74971 F1 T2 F2 T3 F3 ProblemChosen T4 F4 E 2018MCM/ICM SummarySheet Climatecounts!LessFragilitybetterCountries Abstract Withtherapid reaseoftheclimatechangeinfluence,considerableattentionhasbeenattachedtoso- called ‘fragile’ country. In order to measure the impact of climate change and propose reasonable state interventions,weestablishtheFragile-ClimateChangeCouplingModelandothermodelsbasedonthetheory ofcountryfragilityandclimatechange. In task 1, for the sake of numeric measurement of the climate change’s influence, we introduce the anomalyofmeteorologicalelementsandtheextremeweatherprobability,whichmakeuptheclimatechange index(CCI).Furthermore,12indicatorscloselyrelatedtotheclimatechangefromthreeaspectsareselected primarily,andthenentropyweightmethod(EWM)andcoefficientofvariationmethod(CVM)areappliedto integrate the indexes into the fragility index based on the climate change(FCI). Moreover, fuzzy cluster analysis(FCA)isemployedtoclarifycountriesintofour:impregnable,stable,vulnerable,andfragile. Intask2,weselectSomaliaasaresearchobjectandanalyzethecorrelationbetweenitsCCIandthe12 indexesinthefragilestateindex(FSI)torevealtheimpactofclimatechange.Theresultindicatesthatthe economicfragilityissensitivetoCCI.Meanwhile,thesocialfragilityhaslessreactiontoclimatechange, andclimatechangehaspotentialeffectonpolitics. In task 3, the