Causality-JudeaPearl经典机器学习.pdf

Contents Preface page xiii 1 Introduction to Probabilities, Graphs, and Causal Models 1.1 Introduction to Probability Theory 1.1.1 Why Probabilities? 1.1.2 Basic Concepts in Probability Theory 1.1.3 Combining Predictive and Diagnostic Supports 1.1.4 Random Variables and Expectations 1.1.5 Conditional Independence and Graphoids 1.2 Graphs and Probabilities 1.2.1 Graphical Notation and Terminology 1.2.2 Bayesian Networks 1.2.3 The d-Separation Criterion 1.2.4 Inference with Bayesian Networks 1.3 Causal Bayesian Networks 1.3.1 Causal Networks as Oracles for Interventions 1.3.2 Causal Relationships and Their Stability 1.4 Functional Causal Models 1.4.1 StructuralEquations 1.4.2 Probabilistic Predictions in Causal Models 1.4.3 Interventions and Causal Effects in Functional Models 1.4.4 Counterfactuals in Functional Models 1.5 Causal versus StatisticalTerminology A Theory of Inferred Causation 2.1 Introduction 2.2 The Causal Modeling Framework 2.3 Model Preference (Occams Razor) 2.4 Stable Distributions 2.5 Recovering DAG Structures 2.6 Recovering Latent Structures 2.7 Local Criteria for Causal Relations vii Contents 2.8 Nontemporal Causation and Statistical Time 2.9 Conclusions 2.9.1 On Minimality, Markov, and Stability Causal Diagrams and the Identification of Causal Effects 3.1 Introduction 3.2 I