对我国持续贸易顺差的原因影响对策分析.doc

对我国持续贸易顺差的原因影响对策分析 随着全球化的加深，尤其是改革开放以来我国对外贸易大大发展，规模不断 扩大。结果贸易顺差随之而来。既有传统贸易顺差，又有加工贸易，同时还有越 来越多跨国公司通过直接投资向海外销售产品和服务的方式來获取利益,造成贸 易顺差急剧飙升。虽然国际贸易顺差有其促进经济发展的…方面，但长期会损害 我国经济快速健康发展。同时巨额顺羌意味着贸易伙伴的逆差，贸易摩擦争端不 可避免。也不利于营造和谐稳定的国际环境。因此需要具体分析造成贸易顺差频 升的各方面原因，采取有效措施改变现状，促进经济发展。 本文首先从我国国际贸易现状出发，通过分析1978-2(X)7尤其是近几年來贸 易顺差数据原因及顺差造成的影响，认为长期依靠贸易顺差拉动经济增长空间有 限，提出应减少贸易顺差和摩擦，限制并降低“两高一资”产品的出口提高经济 增长质量，减少内需性出口，增加进口，优化加工贸易产品和产业并进行升级， 实现国民经济持续健康快速发展。 本文数据均來自商务部和海关统计，精确且函盖范围广泛，使分析更为真实 有说服力。 关键字贸易顺差；内需性出口；加工贸易升级 ABSTRACT With the deepening of globalization, especially since reform and opening significantly the development of Chinas foreign trade, have been expanding. The results followed by the trade surplus. Not only traditional trade surplus and the processing trade, but also more and more multinational companies through foreign direct investment (FDI) from overseas sales of products and services in ways to obtain benefits, causing the trade surplus rose sharply. Although suplus can do some good on the economy, yet it is hannful to the sustainable economy. At the same time a huge surplus means that the trading partners of the deficit, trade friction is inevitable disputes. It is not conducive to creating a harmonious and stable international environment. Therefore It is necessary to study the special reasons and enforce effective measures to develop economy. This paper from the status quo of Chinas international trade, especially through the analysis of 1978-2007 data in the past few years the trade surplus and the surplus of the reasons for the impact that rely on long-term trade surplus with limited space to promote economic growth, trade surplus and should be reduced by friction, and restrictions Reduce the high one-two11 products of export and improve the quality of economic growth, reducing domestic demand and exports, increase imports, processing trade products and optimize the industries and upgrade of the national economy sustained healthy and rapid development. In this paper, data from th