毕业论文-城市地铁停车换乘站规划方法研究.docxVIP

城市地铁停车换乘站规划方法研究 摘 要 城市的扩张使得城市交通发展必然走以大运量、快速、便捷的轨道交通为骨干、常规公交为辅助、多种方式相结合的交通发展战略模式。城市中心区交通需求量庞大,分布复杂,公共交通作为资源消耗低、容量大的一种交通方式,被认为是最好的出行方式。相对而言,小汽车更加方便灵活,能够实现点到点的服务,为城市外围的主要出行方式。而PR换乘设施作为结合小汽车与公共交通的优点的一种需求管理手段,能有效拦截城市外围机动车,提高城市公共交通的发展。其合理的规划布局将成为这种战略模式发挥作用的关键。 本文分析大连市实地调查数据,结合国内外先进经验,对PR换乘设施的需求预测、选址规划布局进行系统研究。在需求预测方面,本文调查了大连市几个主要节点,对影响PR换乘因素进行二项Logit回归分析,并加以综合筛选,计算得到PR转换概率,根据区域模型得到规划年PR方式的需求量。最终建立PR换乘设施选址规划模型,并结合城市轨道线网进行布局规划。最后以大连为研究对象进行实例验证。最终建立一套简单可行的PR换乘设施系统规划理论,提出适合我国城市发展趋势的PR设施系统规划的基本理论和操作方法。 关键词：停车换乘 Logit模型 城市轨道交通 ABSTRACT The expansion of Chinas big cities would prompt our country be going with traffic development strategy mode which has the main travel way of large-capacity, fast and convenient rail and conventional public traffic, combining with a variety of ways。 The region of high population density has a huge and complex traffic demand , public transportation as a travel tool with low consumption of resources and great capacity is the best travel way that people support highly。For the area outside of the cities with low population，the car compare with the public transportation is convenient and flexible，become the main travel tool in the life of people。And can provide point-to-point high quality services。But PR facilities as a way which can effectively combine the advantages of the car and public traffic，Can effectively intercept the vehicles outside of the city, improve urban public transport development。So，rational planning and layout will be the key to make this strategic mode play a role。 Based on the study of the main features of Chinas large cities, combining with advanced experience, This paper carried out systematic research on the demand forecasts ,the layout and the implementation of management strategies of PR facilities。On the demand forecast, this paper examined several major palces in Chengdu, and used the two Logit regression model to choose the main influence factors。Then this paper calculating the transition probabilities。Finally，it