猪肉价格波动的成因和影响因素分析.docxVIP

PAGE PAGE 29 猪肉价格波动的成因和影响因素分析 ——以广州市花都区为例 摘 要： 本文围绕近期发生的猪肉价格暴涨事件展开。通过了解广州市花都区猪肉行业的现状，以及居民对肉类的消费情况，本文对猪价上涨进行定性和定量分析，从定性分析中了解到的影响因素包括：养殖意愿、成本效益、社会因素、国家政策、猪瘟，这些因素直接或间接影响到整个生猪产业。定量分析通过构建多元回归模型，反映多个变量因素对猪价波动的影响，该模型具有良好的显著性检验和拟合优度，结果显示花都区猪肉价格波动受鸡肉价格和仔猪价格影响比较大。发现猪肉价格上涨的重要原因是市场供给量的大幅度减少，其中导致供给量减少的主要原因有两个，分别是非洲猪瘟和环保禁养政策所带来的影响。最后对缓解猪肉市场价格提出建议。 关键词：猪肉价格；养殖户；供给量；猪瘟；环保政策 Analysis on the causes and influencing factors of pork price fluctuation ——Take Huadu District of Guangzhou as an example Abstract: This paper focuses on the recent surge in pork prices. Through understanding the current situation of pork industry in Huadu District of Guangzhou City and the consumption of meat by residents, this paper makes a qualitative and quantitative analysis on the rise of pig price. The influencing factors learned from the qualitative analysis include: breeding willingness, cost-effectiveness, social factors, national policies, swine fever, which directly or indirectly affect the whole pig industry. Quantitative analysis through the construction of multiple regression model to reflect the impact of multiple variables on the price fluctuation of pigs. The model has a good significance test and goodness of fit. The results show that the price fluctuation of pork in Huadu District is greatly affected by the price of chicken and piglets. It is found that the main reason for the rise of pork price is the substantial reduction of market supply, among which there are two main reasons for the decrease of supply, namely, the impact of African swine fever and environmental protection policy. Finally, suggestions are put forward to ease the market price of pork. Key words: pork price； farmers；supply；swine fever；environmental protection policy 目录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \u 1 引言 2 1.1研究背景和意义 2 1.2 国内外研究现状 3 1.2.1 国内研究现状 3 1.2.2国外研究现状 5 1.3 研究发展趋势 6 1.4 研究思路及方法 6 1.4.1 研究思路 6 1.4.2 研究方法 7 2 猪肉价格上涨和居民消费现状 2.1 国内生猪产量大幅度减少 8 2.2 广州市花都区猪肉零售价格暴涨 10 2.3 居民消费结构变化 10 2.4 居民