呼和浩特站旅客离站换乘方式选择影响因素分析 交通运输专业.docxVIP

PAGE II PAGE II 呼和浩特站旅客离站换乘方式选择影响因素分析 摘　要 随着我国社会经济的不断发展，打造交通强国的进程加快，铁路客流增多，引发一系列换乘问题，换乘在综合交通体系中起着关键性的作用，旅客离站换乘方式的选择又影响着社会经济发展，这就对换乘站提出了更高的要求。呼和浩特站作为呼和浩特运输系统的核心，通过综合考虑分析，指出影响旅客离站换乘因素，利用SPSS软件基于MNL模型，分析换乘影响因素，提出优化建议，对缓解旅客换乘拥堵，改善换乘环境，刺激经济发展，减少时间消耗有着重要意义。 本文根据国内外换乘研究现状，综合考虑呼和浩特站环境因素与个人因素、出行目的因素、换乘方式特点因素等，分析换乘影响因素对旅客选择换乘方式的影响，通过发放调查问卷，利用信效度分析问卷可信度与有效性，随后基于SPSS软件对呼和浩特站旅客离站换乘方式选择影响因素问卷的基本数据进行了筛选分析，选取与换乘行为选择相关性大的影响因素作为自变量，在此基础上构建模型，进行模型参数标定，选取参考项得到效用函数即模型公式，将样本数据带入模型预测，根据模型预测结果，结合呼和浩特站情况分析旅客离站换乘问题，提出优化建议。 关键词：换乘影响因素，MNL模型 Analysis of Influencing Factors on Transfer Mode Selection of Hohhot Railway Station Passengers Abstract With the continuous development of Chinas social economy, the process of building a transportation power has been accelerated and the railway passenger flow has increased, causing a series of transfer problems. Transfer plays a key role in the comprehensive transportation system, the choice of transfer mode affects the social and economic development, which puts forward higher requirements for transfer station. As the core of the Hohhot Transportation System, the Hohhot Railway Station points out the factors that affect the passenger departure and transfer, and makes use of SPSS software based on MNL model to analyze the factors that influence the transfer, and puts forward optimization suggestions, it is of great significance to ease the congestion of passenger transfer, improve the transfer environment, stimulate economic development and reduce time consumption. According to the current situation of transfer research at home and abroad, this paper analyzes the influence of transfer influencing factors on passengerschoice of transfer mode, taking into account the factors of Hohhot Railway Station environment and personal factors, the factors of travel destination, and the characteristics of transfer mode, the reliability and validity of the questionnaire were analyzed by distributing the questionnaire, and then the basic data of the questionnair