2015年夏季江淮流域的降水特征及其成因分析.docVIP

PAGE PAGE 16 2015年夏季江淮流域的降水特征及其成因分析 摘要：本文利用NCEP/NCAR2.5°×2.5°逐日四次再分析资料、1°×1°逐日四次fnl资料、NOAA全球海温逐月资料以及国家气候中心提供的全国160站逐月累计降水资料，对2015年夏季我国江淮流域降水特征及其成因进行了分析，并对江淮流域入梅以来的第一次降水过程（6月23-24日）进行了诊断。结果表明，2015年夏季梅雨期江淮地区降水异常偏多是由环流形势异常、海温异常和热带气旋活跃等多个因素共同作用导致的：（1）100hPa高度上南亚高压偏强，表现为青藏高压模态，江淮流域位于东伸脊点附近，有利于冷空气的输送；（2）200hPa高度上江淮地区位于气流辐散区，有利于上升运动的发展；（3）500hPa中高纬度环流形势由双阻型演变为两槽一脊型，低纬度副高偏强，有利于西南暖湿气流与南下的冷空气在江淮流域交汇；（4）850hPa上江淮流域位于水汽辐合区，这为降水提供了充沛的水汽条件；（5）2015年为厄尔尼诺年，海温异常不仅加强了水汽输送，也使得副高和南亚高压异常偏强，间接导致了梅雨期间降水量异常偏多。 关键字：江淮流域；降水特征；环流形势；海温异常 Precipitation characteristics and genesis analysis of the Yangtze-Huaihe Abstract:In this paper,I use the NCEP/NCAR 2.5°×2.5° four-times daily reanalysis data,fnl 1°×1°data,NOAA global sea surface temperature(SST) monthly data and the 160 stations accumulated monthly precipitation data provided by the National Climate Center to study the precipitation anomaly of plum rain appeared on the summer of 2015 in Jianghuai area of China,and also analyze the rainstorm process in Northern Jiangsu and Anhui provinces from 23rd to 24th June.The results show that the precipitation anomaly during the plum rain period is caused by many factors,such as the anomalous circulation、SST anomalies and active tropical cyclone:(1)The South Asian high was stronger and represented the form of Tibetan high and the Yangtze River Basin was near the east point of the ridge.The South Asian high provided a cold air conditions for the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin .(2)Jianghuai area was in air divergence area at 200hPa which was conducive to the ascending motion.(3)The circulation in mid-high latitude evolved from double blocking type to two groove ridge type at 500hPa,.In low latitude,subtropical high was strong and leaded to the southwest warm wet air meeting the cold air from north in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin.(4)Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin was located in the water vapor convergence area at 850hPa, which provides abundant water vapor conditions for precipitation.(5)In 2015 SST anomal