[经济学]发展经济学(3).pptVIP

2021/6/30 比较静态分析：模型参数变化对模型的影响 投资率增加，资本进一步深化，稳定状态下的劳动力人均资本进一步增加 人口增长率增加，资本被稀释，稳定状态下的劳动力人均资本减少 稳定状态的性质 人均资本存量随时间变化率为零 转型动态分析－从非稳态向稳态过渡过程中，经济增长速率的变化 转型动态分析 人均资本量的变化率：当经济体低于其稳定状态越远，则增长率越大；经济体高于其稳态越远，经济体衰退越快。 稳定状态意味着增长停滞。 Technology development and Solow’s model Theories of Development: A Comparative Analysis Chapter 3 Leading Theories of Economic Development: Five Approaches Classical Scenario 古典经济增长理论 Linear-stages-of-growth model 线性增长模型 Neoclassical models 新古典增长模型 Endogenous growth 内生经济增长模型 亚当·斯密与报酬递增 产出、生活水平提高→资本积累→利润的储蓄→工业和农业的专业化劳动分工 劳动分工决定了劳动生产率。 劳动分工提高劳动生产率有三种途径： 1、工人工作技能的提升，即边干边学。 2、分工的细化节省了在不同工作间转移的时间。 3、机器的发明使同一个劳动者可以从事多种工作。 劳动分工受到市场规模的限制。 1、如机器的使用只有在市场规模较大情况下才有经济性，否则就会出现剩余产品。 2、自由贸易对市场规模的扩大有着积极的意义。 斯密的报酬递增观点是新内生经济增长理论的核心思想 古典悲观主义 TP* TP O W subsistence wage line P E2 W2 W1 E1 N1 N2 Labor Total production Original condition: Labor: ON1 Production: OP Wage:N1W1 Surplus:E1W1 Demand for labor increase Wages increase to E1N1N1W1 According to Malthusian theory of population, population will increase to ON2; Surplus appear again E2W2 Equilibrium point: E Technology development: E*, the day of doom can not be eliminated E E* Limitations of the classical model The role of technology development has been grossly underestimated The Malthusian theory of population growth has been proved to be misleading: whenever wages are above level of subsistence, population will increase?? Too aggregated and did not account for the diversities with labor and capital input The Linear-Stages Theory Rostow’s stages of growth The Harrod-Domar growth model Obstacles and constraints Some criticisms of the stages model Rostow’s stages of growth The Transition from underdevelopment to development can be descried in terms of a series of steps or stages through which all countries must proceed the traditional society the pre-conditions for take-off into self-sustaining growth the take-off the drive to maturity the age of high mass-consumptio