HSBC-中国金属和采矿业-中国铝：走向绿色之挑战多于机遇-2021.12.2-.pdfVIP

2 December 2021 China Aluminium Equities Metals Mining Going green – more challenges than opportunities China  Government decarbonisation initiatives will make China’s aluminium industry greener and more energy efficient…  …but this will come with increasing production costs, higher capex, and disruptions to demand and supply  We don’t think aluminium prices will exceed near-term peaks; stocks under our coverage include Hongqiao (Hold) and Chalco-H/A (Reduce) We assess the impact of decarbonisation and energy transition on China’s aluminium industry by looking at five themes: 1) the upside to aluminium consumption driven by Howard Lau*, CFA Analyst, China Basic Materials energy transition may be lower than expected; 2) diversifying the energy mix in The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited favour of renewables will be delayed due to recent power shortages, but the trend will howard.h.b.lau@.hk +852 2996 6625 continue; 3) Beijing’s recent energy controls have kept aluminum supply tight but not Evan Li* enough to offset the decline in demand; 4) aluminum recycling will increase supply; Head, Asia Utilities Conglomerates Research and 5) the viable options to