计量经济学课件英文chapter1.pptxVIP

Chapter 1 THE NATURE OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS; THE MODEL INTERPRETATION OF REGRESSION Regression of analysis is concerned with the study of the dependence of one variable, the dependent variable, on one or more other variables, the explanatory variables, with a view to estimating and/or predicting the （population） mean or average value of the former in terms of the known or fixed （in repeated sampling） values of the letter.;;A labor economist may want to study the rate of money wages in relation to the unemployment rate.; STATISTICAL VS. DETERMINISTIC RELATIONSHIPS In regression analysis we are concerned with is known as the statistical, not functional or deterministic, dependence among variables. In statistical relationships among variables we essentially deal with random or stochastic variables, that is, variables that have probability distributions. In functional or deterministic dependency, on the other hand, we also deal with variables, but these variables are not random or stochastic. Example：The dependence of crop yield on temperature, rainfall, sunshine, and fertilizer, for example, is statistical . In deterministic phenomena, on the hand, we deal with relationships of the type, say, exhibited by Newton’s law of gravity.;REGRESSION VS. CAUSATION Although regression analysis deals with the dependence of one variable on other variables, it does not necessarily imply causation. In the words of Kendall and Stuart, “A statistical relationship, however strong and however suggestive, can never establish causal connection: our ideas of causation must come from outside statistics, ultimately from some theory or other.” A statistical relationship per se cannot logically imply causation. To ascribe causality, one must appeal to a priori or theoretical considerations. ;REGRESSION VS. CORRELATION Correlation analysis’ primary objective is to measure the strength or degree of linear association between two variables. Correlation coefficient measures