2020年石油巨头：行业终于迎来拐点.docxVIP

HSBCGlobal Research 10 January 2020Big Oils in 2020 Sector finally at a turning point? EquitiesOil Gas Global? After a tough 2019, we expect a better outlook for the BigOils in 2020 as macro conditions improve ? Fall in FCF breakevens key to restoring confidence and valuation re-rating? BP top sector pick; other Buys are Equinor, Total and Repsol; we trim estimates and update target prices Top debate for 2020: How low really are free cash breakevens? Much of the debate around the attractiveness of the oil majors centres on perceptions of their dividend sustainability and by inference their free cash breakevens. After five years of steady improvements, breakevens deteriorated in 2019 due to weakness in all macro parameters beyond crude - gas and petrochemicals, in particular. We expect breakevens to improve once again in 2020, falling from ?USD60/b back to the low USD50s thanks to better macro conditions and company-specific factors (p.2-3)What else to watch in 2020 Prices and margins: was 2019 the trough for macro conditions?\Ne tweaked our 2020 oil price assumption in Oil in 2020 (9 January), raising Brent to USD61/b. Spot gas prices could be weaker in 2020 given continued oversupply - we cut our gas price forecasts in this report (p.17). However, we expect refining margins to improve with help from IMO and petchems margins to recover slowly from their current 9-year lows. Has consensus bottomed out? Nearly. Given trade deal progress and geopolitics, we think the balance of risks to 2020-21 oil price consensus of USD60/b is skewed to the upside - but this may be offset in the near term by downgrades on other macro drivers. Is 2020 the year capex starts to ramp up again? We expect spending to rise only modestly (+5% in 2020), with faster growth in downstream and low-carbon investments. Will we get dividend growth and buybacks? \es (mostly). We expect dividend growth and sustained buybacks at Total, ENI, Equinor and Repsol. We think BP has the ability grow dividends